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US TSYS: Twist Steeper On Heavy Volumes With Tariffs In Place

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Treasuries trade twist steeper, with the longer end having more firmly pared gains seen after the open following President Trump yesterday pushing ahead with previously one-month delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus an additional 10% tariffs on China. They have been met by retaliation from Canada and China.
  • The long end could also be seeing some intraday spillover from larger than expected potential EU defense spending (touted by EC’s Von Der Leyen as potentially a EUR 800bn increase) plus a weak JGB 10Y auction.
  • Cash yields are 2bp lower (2s) to 2.8bp higher (30s) with the pivot after 5s.
  • 2Y yields at 3.93% have reinforced Friday’s brief push to a 3 handle, back at mid-October levels.
  • TYM5 trades at 111-17 (+04) having pulled back off latest recent highs of 111-28+, and has seen huge cumulative volumes of 940k (roughly double recent averages).
  • The earlier climb pierced resistance at 111-12+ (Dec 3, 2024 high) and paves the way for an extension to 112-02 and 112-13 (Fribo projection points). To the downside, support is seen at 110-00 (Feb 28 low).
  • Politics: Pres Trump addresses joint session of Congress (2100ET)
  • Data: No notable releases
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (1420ET) – see STIR bullet
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 6W, $40B 12D CMB bill auctions (1130ET)
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  • Treasuries trade twist steeper, with the longer end having more firmly pared gains seen after the open following President Trump yesterday pushing ahead with previously one-month delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico plus an additional 10% tariffs on China. They have been met by retaliation from Canada and China.
  • The long end could also be seeing some intraday spillover from larger than expected potential EU defense spending (touted by EC’s Von Der Leyen as potentially a EUR 800bn increase) plus a weak JGB 10Y auction.
  • Cash yields are 2bp lower (2s) to 2.8bp higher (30s) with the pivot after 5s.
  • 2Y yields at 3.93% have reinforced Friday’s brief push to a 3 handle, back at mid-October levels.
  • TYM5 trades at 111-17 (+04) having pulled back off latest recent highs of 111-28+, and has seen huge cumulative volumes of 940k (roughly double recent averages).
  • The earlier climb pierced resistance at 111-12+ (Dec 3, 2024 high) and paves the way for an extension to 112-02 and 112-13 (Fribo projection points). To the downside, support is seen at 110-00 (Feb 28 low).
  • Politics: Pres Trump addresses joint session of Congress (2100ET)
  • Data: No notable releases
  • Fedspeak: NY Fed’s Williams (1420ET) – see STIR bullet
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $70B 6W, $40B 12D CMB bill auctions (1130ET)