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Two-Year TIIE Swap Rates Rise Around 20BPs, Banxico Decision Next Week

MEXICO
  • LatAm swaps curves have shifted higher, in line with the moves seen across core fixed income markets. Most notably, Mexico’s TIIE curve has increased its inversion with 2-year TIIE swap rates rising around 20bps on the day, following Monday’s closure. Most analysts are still expecting a 25bp move from Banxico next week but will be eagerly awaiting the Fed’s decision tomorrow.
  • As a reminder, Banxico said in February that for its next policy meeting “the upward adjustment to the reference rate could be of lower magnitude”.
  • Mexico’s inflation data is providing some “good news” but the central bank is still considering increasing its key interest rate by a “lesser magnitude” than last month’s 50 basis-point hike, the institution’s governor said in an interview late last week.
  • “We’ll take into account the decision of the Fed and many other factors, to the extent that they affect the inflation panorama”, Governor Rodriguez said.
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