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TY Bear Trigger Offers Support, JOLTS To Offer Early Labor Data Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsy yields sit 0.5-4bp higher on the day, bear steepening with 2s10s at -36.3bps (+3bp) as long end yields set fresh YtD highs.
  • Yesterday’s ISM manufacturing beat, and especially prices paid at the highest level in over a year, continues to set the tone here. European spillover is mixed meanwhile, with regional prints suggesting downside risk to German headline CPI but with core inflation only slowly moderating.
  • TYM4 has lifted 1-2 ticks off session lows of 109-24+ on heavy overnight volumes of 515k as regional markets catch-up with Easter Monday closures (for which the US was still open). It tests the bear trigger at 109-24+ (Mar 18 low) after which lies 109-14+ (Nov 28 low).
  • JOLTS headlines today's docket before Fedspeak later on, all with an eye on tomorrow’s ISM services before Friday’s payrolls.
  • Data: JOLTS report Feb (1000ET), Factory orders Feb (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Bowman (1010ET), Williams (1200ET), Mester (1205ET) and Daly (1330ET) – see STIR bullet.
  • Bill issuance: US Tsy $65B 42D Bill CMB auction (1130ET)

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