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TY Probing Resistance Ahead Of Payrolls, ISM Services

US TSYS
  • Treasuries see the front end consolidate yesterday’s rally ahead of payrolls and ISM services, but from the belly onwards rally a little further along with EGBs.
  • After a late open due to a Japan holiday, cash yields range from just 0.2bp higher (2s) to 2bp lower (10s through to 30s), mostly bull flattening with 2s10s at -31.2bps (-2.2bps) to chip away at the week’s steepening.
  • TYM4 has recently pushed half a tick above yesterday’s high with 108-12+ on below average volumes of just over 250k.
  • The contract is probing resistance at 108-10 (20-day EMA) after which lies 108-22+ (Apr 19 high), whilst the trend outlook is still lower with support at 107-04 (Apr 25 low).
  • Data: Nonfarm payrolls Apr (0830ET), S&P Global US serv/comp Apr f (0945ET), ISM services Apr (1000ET)
  • Fedspeak: Goolsbee (’25 voter) on BBG TV (1030ET), Goolsbee & Williams (voter) in panel discussion at 1945ET incl text.

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