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U.Mich Sentiment Dips Slightly, Inflation Expectations Unchanged

US DATA
  • U.Mich consumer sentiment was slightly lower than expected in the preliminary March release at 76.5 (cons 77.1) after 76.9 in Feb. It’s a little further off the 79.0 in January that had marked the highest since Jul’21.
  • “Sentiment remained almost 25% above November 2023 and is currently halfway between the historic low reached during the peak of inflation in June 2022 and pre-pandemic readings.”
  • The decline relative to Feb was led by expectations (74.6 after 75.2) whilst current conditions were unchanged (79.4).
  • “Consumer views have stabilized into a holding pattern […] many are withholding judgment about the trajectory of the economy, particularly in the long term, pending the results of this November’s election.”
  • No significant change/surprises in inflation expectations:
  • 1Y: 3.0 (cons 3.1) in Mar prelim after 3.0% in Feb
  • 5-10Y: 2.9 (cons 2.9) in Mar prelim after 2.9% in Feb

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