June 23, 2022 13:41 GMT
As we head into PMI data, U.S. rate futures have just about priced out the additional 2022 hiking seen after the pre-FOMC media revelations on Jun 13 that the June hike would be 75bp.
- End-2022 implied Fed funds rate is now 3.40%, so about 175bp in hikes from here, but that's off from a peak of over 3.70% at the time of the Jun 15 FOMC decision.
- A 75bp hike is still close to fully priced in for July, but the pace is seen downshifting to 50bp in September, with a further 50bp total for Nov and Dec.
- Note that 3.40% is basically exactly in line with the FOMC's Dot Plot median for 2022.