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STIR
As we head into PMI data, U.S. rate futures have just about priced out the additional 2022 hiking seen after the pre-FOMC media revelations on Jun 13 that the June hike would be 75bp.
- End-2022 implied Fed funds rate is now 3.40%, so about 175bp in hikes from here, but that's off from a peak of over 3.70% at the time of the Jun 15 FOMC decision.
- A 75bp hike is still close to fully priced in for July, but the pace is seen downshifting to 50bp in September, with a further 50bp total for Nov and Dec.
- Note that 3.40% is basically exactly in line with the FOMC's Dot Plot median for 2022.
Source: BBG
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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