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UBS: Above Consensus CPI

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS see core CPI inflation at +0.51% M/M in April after the -0.32% M/M in March with the major change on the month being used car prices rising slightly (+0.2% after -3.8%).
  • New vehicle prices are also expected to show more strength than in March, reaccelerating to a pace similar to last year's string of 1%+ increases, with the renewed strength is partially the result of a change in BLS methodology.
  • Outside of vehicles, UBS expect it to look lot like the March report: robust increases in OER and tenants' rents (+0.47% and +0.48% M/M), airfares (+9% based on data from Hopper), and medical care services (+0.58% M/M based on a continued surge in medical insurance prices).
  • Headline CPI is seen at +0.34% M/M with a drag from energy (-2.08% M/M) along with a modest moderation in food inflation (0.82% M/M).
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