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UBS Below Consensus For Payrolls Following Warm Winter

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS are below consensus of 240k with their forecast of “still solid” NFP growth of 200k in April and private employment growth cooling to 165k.
  • “Part of the expected slowing is some normalization following the warm winter, and which could pose downside risk to our estimate.”
  • “Seasonal adjustment in April is an upside risk to private employment. The residual net birth death adjustment (a model-based imputation) was more supportive for employment than usual in April 2023, and could build support for the private employment gain further in April 2024, though we have built that into our estimate for private employment, otherwise we would expect more slowing due to the weather.”
  • They see the u/e rate unchanged at 3.8% and the participation rate at 62.7%.
  • UBS wrote that they see AHE rising 0.23% M/M although their more recent entry to the Bloomberg survey from May 1 has 0.3% M/M. “We expect the calendar set-up in March supported the 0.35% increase in AHE, at the expense of April”. […] Absent revision, that implies the Y/Y rate would fall from 4.1% to 4.0%, ongoing cooling that would likely be welcomed by the FOMC.”
  • They see average hours remaining at 34.4hrs as “the volatility surrounding the weather-affected January employment report has run its course.”
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