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UBS Estimates Grocery Inflation Rose To New Peak In April

AUSTRALIA

UBS is warning that food & grocery inflation reached a new peak of 9.6% y/y in April up from 9.4% the previous month, driven by labour and supply-chain issues, based on its own research of more than 60k food and grocery items. Fresh food fell slightly to 9.9% from 10.1% in March but it was 8.9% in February, while dry groceries rose to 9.4% from 9%.

  • UBS commented that ““While monthly pricing data is volatile, especially fresh given supply variability, it is valuable given the current period of materially high food inflation. The increasing rate of food inflation is a surprise, and inconsistent with the declines reported by Coles and Woolworths in the third quarter.”
  • UBS expects dry grocery inflation to stay high but moderate and fresh food should also ease.
    - The Australian
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