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Free AccessUBS: FOMC Could Release Runoff Gameplan Tomorrow
UBS expects the January meeting to set markets up for a March rate hike – and could provide additional guidance on runoff. UBS would not be surprised if asset purchases were ended before March, though not the core view.
- Possible the FOMC releases a document with normalization principles and plans for balance sheet reduction at the January FOMC, “which is also the annual organizational meeting and a time at which the longer run goals and strategy are reaffirmed. If not released then, we think it will be released in March.”
- Statement: To be so direct as to include “next meeting” language re a rate hike – a “strong signal” akin to the October 2015 statement.
- Press conference: Powell to provide guidance that work on runoff continues; plans are progressing to shrinking asset holdings not long after purchases end.
- Future action: March liftoff, 25bp increases in Jun and Sep. A two-25bp-per-year pace in 2023 and 2024 (Jun and Dec meetings in each), to 1.75-2.00% by end-2024.
- Balance sheet runoff announced at the May FOMC (though could slip to June), but runoff to start no later than July FOMC. $30B caps ($20B Tsy /$10B MBS) initially, rising to $45B in Q4, with final pace of $60B in Q1 2023. Though faster $75B ($50B Tsy/$25B MBS) can’t be discarded.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.