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UBS: Half Of Core CPI Dip Seen From Used Vehicles

US OUTLOOK/OPINION
  • UBS estimate core CPI of 0.33% M/M in September in a notable slowing from August’s 0.57% but still above July’s 0.31% and 4% annualized with the 12-month rate rising a tenth to 6.4% Y/Y.
  • Drivers of the slowdown are fairly narrow, with more than half coming from a faster decline in used vehicle prices.
  • OER and tenants' rent are projected to continue to surge, albeit slightly less than in August; medical care services prices should see a final strong month in Sep before a swing in CPI health insurance weighs over the next year; and core goods ex transportation are expected to slow slightly as the weakness in import prices in recent months starts to show through to retail prices."
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