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Free AccessUBS: Heath's Data Dependent Vote Tilted Towards 25bps Hike
- UBS think the CB board remains divided on how monetary policy should react to ongoing inflationary pressures. With inflation still elevated and rising, UBS think the two consistently hawkish members on the current board, Governor Diaz de Leon and deputy governor Espinosa, will vote for a new 25bp hike.
- Likewise, the two doves, which have dissented in recent hike decisions, Deputy Governors Esquivel and Borja, are unlikely to change their mind, opting once more for no hikes, having stated that with inflation due to converge next year, monetary policy should not be tightened now.
- This leaves the decision on rates on the shoulders of deputy governor Heath, in their view. In the minutes of the Aug meeting, one member, who UBS would identify as Heath, supported the hike but argued that rates were now consistent with the attainment of the inflation target. However, this member added that future decisions would be data dependent.
- With inflation again surprising to the upside both in Aug and in H1'Sep, UBS think Heath will vote in favour of another 25bp hike, taking the benchmark rate to 4.75%.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.