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UBS Increases Brent Forecast

OIL

UBS has increased their Brent crude forecast for 2022 and 2023 on low inventories, dwindling spare capacity and the risk of supply growth lagging demand over the coming months.

  • They increased near term prices by 15$/bbl and by 10$/bbl out to mid 2023
  • End-Sep22 from 115$/bbl to 130$/bbl
  • End-Dec22 from 115$/bbl to 125$/bbl
  • End-Mar23 from 115$/bbl to 125$/bbl
  • End-Jun23 from 115$/bbl to 125$/bbl
  • They forecast a slow recovery in oil demand from China lifting restrictions and adding economic stimulus as well as from the summer driving season and warmer weather in Middle East.
  • Supply with be impacted by the gradual EU ban on Russian oil imports and with a pause in negotiations for an Iran nuclear deal, they do not expect an increase of Iranian output this year.

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