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UBS on Most Vulnerable EM Countries

EMERGING MARKETS
  • UBS identifies several countries as vulnerable according to this analysis:
  • Latin America:Colombia stands out as highly vulnerable, followed by Chile. Despite having positive real rates, Colombia also has a high foreign currency debt burden. Chile has a large external funding gap and short-term foreign currency debt, partially mitigated by the fact thatChilean companies actively hedge their foreign currency exposure.
  • EMEA:South Africa exhibits negative real rates and fairly elevated foreign currency liabilities in the near term. CEE: Widening current account balances in the Central andEastern European economies are also worth monitoring.
  • Asia: Although the region is the least vulnerable among emerging markets, the Philippines and Thailand—both net energy importers—are set to experience deteriorating basic balances this year given elevated energy prices.

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