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UK activity data due at 7:00GMT (2/2)

UK DATA
  • Quarterly GDP is forecast to show a notably slowdown, projected to come in at 1.5%Q/Q in Q3, dropping from 5.5%Q/Q in the Q2 as supply chain issues in conjunction with accelerating energy prices have weighed on growth.
  • Analysts expect private consumption will contract from 7.2%Q/Q to 3.1%Q/Q reflecting dampening consumer confidence amidst sustained inflation with retail sales slumping 3.9% in the third quarter coupled with a 16% decline in car sales between July and September.
  • After the short sterling strip moved lower yesterday following the Chinese/US inflation prints, there is likely to be a larger market response today to a disappointing release rather than a positive release.
  • Furthermore, its likely that strong output won't be enough for the BoE to vote to raise rates, but really weak output could delay a hike into next year (markets still price a decent chance of a December 15bp hike).

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