UK CBI Order Books weaken, with new orders falling at fastest pace since July 2020

UK CBI Order Books Balance weakens to -30 (vs -23 forecast, -23 prior), whilst average prices for next three months are expected to rise to +9 (vs +7 prior). The survey based on 246 manufacturing firms found:

• “Total new orders fell at their fastest pace since July 2020 (balance of -13% from +2% in October).”
• “Growth in average costs per unit of output accelerated in the quarter to January, with the pace of costs growth standing well above average (balance of +43%, from +29% in October, long run average of +18%). Cost growth is expected to remain elevated in the quarter to April (+43%).”
• Meanwhile, Volume of output is expected to rise marginally in the next three months to +7% (vs +5% prior), although output volumes fell in the three months to January to -10% from 0%.
• “Investment intentions for the year ahead were mixed… The main constraint on investment was uncertainty about demand (cited by 58% of manufacturers, the highest since January 2021).”
• CBI Deputy Chief Economist said “Conditions in the manufacturing sector deteriorated unexpectedly.. Uncertainty about demand looks set to weigh on investment in the year ahead.”
• Survey conducted between 18th December and 12th January.