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UK CPI vs BOJ

GILTS
  • Gilts futures are a little lower this morning with the curve steepening a little.
  • On the open gilts moved higher in reaction to the decision by the BOJ to not make large changes to YCC, in line with the majority of analyst views but the market had been more concerned.
  • However, after the kneejerk reaction, gilts moved off their highs fairly swiftly.
  • However, core CPI came in a little higher than expected with core services in particular noteworthy, rising from 5.4%Y/Y in November to 5.8%Y/Y in December. This stickiness in inflation is likely to be a key concern for the MPC and makes a 50bp hike in February look more likely.
  • Indeed, market pricing for February has increased to 46bp (from 45bp yesterday) while March pricing has increased to 79bp from 77bp and the terminal rate is back above 100bp cumulative more hikes at 102bp by August (up from 98bp yesterday).
  • 2y yields up 4.5bp today at 3.481%, 5y yields up 3.0bp at 3.298%, 10y yields up 4.2bp at 3.363% and 30y yields up 4.4bp at 3.709%.
  • 2s10s down -0.4bp today at -0.11.bp and 10s30s up 0.2bp at 34.6bp.
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