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UK DATA: Activity data a bit softer than expected

UK DATA
CEEMEAData BulletBulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • At first glance: Q/Q GDP a tenth lower than expected. Looks like its driven by the weakness in the September print here - which is -0.1%M/M, 3 tenths below the expected +0.2%M/M (the survey had seen downside risks but only to a +0.1%M/M print).
  • Services were flat (exp +0.2%M/M), IP fell 0.5%M/M (exp +0.1%) - within IP manufacturing production fell 1.0%M/M (exp -0.1%, from a revised 1.3%M/M in Aug (previously reported at 1.1%). Construction broadly in line with the revisions.
  • GBPUSD did initially spike around 10 pips lower on the release but its not a huge move.
  • The biggest contribution to the downside miss in services saw the "information and communication" component, on which the ONS says: "The largest negative contribution in September 2024 came from information and communication, which fell by 2.0%, falling back after growth earlier in the year but remaining 1.2% above its level a year ago. September’s contraction was because of falls in five out of its six subsectors, with the largest contribution coming from a 2.6% fall in computer programming, consultancy, and related activities. There were also falls of 3.6% in publishing activities and 1.1% in telecommunications. This offset the growth of 1.8% experienced in programming and broadcasting activities."
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  • At first glance: Q/Q GDP a tenth lower than expected. Looks like its driven by the weakness in the September print here - which is -0.1%M/M, 3 tenths below the expected +0.2%M/M (the survey had seen downside risks but only to a +0.1%M/M print).
  • Services were flat (exp +0.2%M/M), IP fell 0.5%M/M (exp +0.1%) - within IP manufacturing production fell 1.0%M/M (exp -0.1%, from a revised 1.3%M/M in Aug (previously reported at 1.1%). Construction broadly in line with the revisions.
  • GBPUSD did initially spike around 10 pips lower on the release but its not a huge move.
  • The biggest contribution to the downside miss in services saw the "information and communication" component, on which the ONS says: "The largest negative contribution in September 2024 came from information and communication, which fell by 2.0%, falling back after growth earlier in the year but remaining 1.2% above its level a year ago. September’s contraction was because of falls in five out of its six subsectors, with the largest contribution coming from a 2.6% fall in computer programming, consultancy, and related activities. There were also falls of 3.6% in publishing activities and 1.1% in telecommunications. This offset the growth of 1.8% experienced in programming and broadcasting activities."