UK DATA
BRC-NielsenIQ Shop Prices remained in deflation territory for a fourth consecutive month in November, printing -0.6% Y/Y (vs -0.8% prior). However, this is the first time the Y/Y print has been higher than the previous month since May 2023. On a monthly basis, Shop Prices grew 0.2% M/M (vs 0.1% prior).
- The Non-Food component increased in Y/Y terms though remained in deflation for the eighth consecutive month, printing -1.8% Y/Y (vs -2.1% in October), rising 0.2% M/M (vs 0.1% rise prior).
- Food Price inflation continued its trajectory of softening albeit at a slower pace printing 1.8% Y/Y (vs 1.9% prior). With the exception of September 2024, the Y/Y print has moderated every month since April 2023 and is now at its lowest level since November 2021, but still above the 2015-2019 average of 0.65%Y/Y. It rose 0.3% M/M (vs 0.0% in October).
- If translated to CPI, this would lead to core goods prices and food prices both coming in stronger than the Bank of England's November MPR forecasts would suggest. However, we note that core goods prices calculated by the ONS have been been broadly stable since May in Y/Y terms whereas the BRC index has seen non-food prices fall in Y/Y terms through most of that period, so the correlation seems to have broken down somewhat.
- Survey period: 1 to 7 November 2024.
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