UK Data Forecasts: August Halifax House Price Index

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 14:35 GMT Sep 4/10:35 EST Sep 4

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - With minimal signs of current trends abating, UK house

prices in August is predicted to come in broadly unchanged from the levels set

in July. On the month, house prices are expected to grow 0.3% m/m, 0.1pp lower

than in July, while annual growth is expected to come in at 2.4% 3m y/y, up from

2.1% 3m y/y in July.

     House prices were broadly flat in July, as they have been for much of the

year, with squeezed real wages, the implementation of higher stamp duty charges

and general economic and political uncertainty all contributing to weaker house

activity.

--------------------------------------------------------

                                  Aug                Aug

                              Halifax            Halifax

                    House Price Index  House Price Index

                                % m/m           % 3m y/y

Date Out                       07-Sep             07-Sep

Median                            0.3                2.4

Consensus

Forecast High                     0.5                3.1

Forecast Low                        0                  2

Standard Deviation                0.2                0.5

Count                               4                  3

Prior                             0.4                2.1

Berenberg                         N/A                2.2

Credit Suisse                     0.4                N/A

HSBC                              0.0                2.4

Oxford Economics                  0.1                3.1

Pantheon                          0.5                N/A

     A raft of survey data have pointed to a softening in the UK housing market.

The British Banker's Association Mortgage Approval Report in July saw new buyer

enquiries slip for the fourth straight month while a Q2 Building Societies

Association report put the proportion of people who thought it was a good to

time to buy at the lowest level since Q3 2008. 

     Furthermore, a recent Bank of England Credit Conditions Survey reported

most lenders intend to reduce the supply of secured credit over the next three

months, the first time in three years.

     All if these paint a picture of squeezed household incomes and weaker

housing demand albeit offset by an acute shortage of affordable places to live. 

     On a slightly more positive note, the BOE's assessment of mortgage

approvals in July, from it's most recent Money and Credit data release, rose to

68,689, the highest level since March 2016. 

     Given mortgage approvals provide an indication of future house prices, it

may be that things may be about to turn a corner though the chances of this

happening is heavily are admittedly slim given the overwhelmingly subdued

incumbent data.  

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]