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UK Data Forecasts: Jul BOE Money and Credit Data

MNI (London)
Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 08:11 GMT Aug 29/04:11 EST Aug 29
By Jamie Satchithanantham
     LONDON (MNI) - Housing activity in the UK has softened somewhat in recent
months as household's grapple with rising inflation, subdued wage growth and an
uncertain business landscape. In June, mortgage approvals subsequently fell to a
nine-month low of 64,700.
     Casting our attention to July, analysts reckon we will see a pickup. The
median of analysts' forecasts is 65,800, with expectations as high as 66,600 and
as low as 64,000. 
     At 65,800, this is in line with data published by UK Finance (formally the
BBA) earlier this week, who reported approvals up to 41,600 in July versus
40,400 in June.
     According to the BOE, secured lending rose to stg4.1bn in June and all
analysts see this figure retreating in July. Taking the median of analyst
expectations, a outturn of stg3.5bn is expected in July. 
     The latest Bank of England Agent's survey reported banks noted their
intention to restrict supply of credit over the next quarter, the first time in
three years.
     Elsewhere, unsecured credit lending levels, under the scrutiny of the Bank
of England, are expected to come in broadly unchanged from the levels seen in
recent months.
---------------------------------------------------------
                             Jul           Jul        Jul
                             BOE           BOE        BOE
                    Net Consumer  Net Mortgage   Mortgage
                          Credit       Lending  Approvals
                         % 3m/3m        stg bn      '000s
Date Out                  30-Aug        30-Aug     30-Aug
Median                       1.5           3.3       65.8
Forecast High                1.7           3.8       66.6
Forecast Low                 1.2           3.0       64.0
Standard Deviation           0.1           0.4        1.0
Count                          7             4         10
Prior                        1.5           4.1       64.7
Barclays                     1.7           3.0       66.0
Berenberg                    N/A           N/A       65.0
Capital Economics            1.2           N/A       66.5
Credit Suisse                N/A           N/A       64.0
Investec                     1.5           3.5       65.5
Lloyds TSB                   N/A           N/A       64.0
Nomura                       1.5           3.0       66.0
Oxford Economics             1.5           3.8       64.5
Pantheon                     1.4           N/A       66.0
Societe Generale             1.5           N/A       66.6
--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com
[TOPICS: MTABLE]
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 203-865-3812 | les.commons@marketnews.com

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