UK Data Forecasts: Jul BOE Money and Credit Data

Repeats Story Initially Transmitted at 08:11 GMT Aug 29/04:11 EST Aug 29

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - Housing activity in the UK has softened somewhat in recent

months as household's grapple with rising inflation, subdued wage growth and an

uncertain business landscape. In June, mortgage approvals subsequently fell to a

nine-month low of 64,700.

     Casting our attention to July, analysts reckon we will see a pickup. The

median of analysts' forecasts is 65,800, with expectations as high as 66,600 and

as low as 64,000. 

     At 65,800, this is in line with data published by UK Finance (formally the

BBA) earlier this week, who reported approvals up to 41,600 in July versus

40,400 in June.

     According to the BOE, secured lending rose to stg4.1bn in June and all

analysts see this figure retreating in July. Taking the median of analyst

expectations, a outturn of stg3.5bn is expected in July. 

     The latest Bank of England Agent's survey reported banks noted their

intention to restrict supply of credit over the next quarter, the first time in

three years.

     Elsewhere, unsecured credit lending levels, under the scrutiny of the Bank

of England, are expected to come in broadly unchanged from the levels seen in

recent months.

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                             Jul           Jul        Jul

                             BOE           BOE        BOE

                    Net Consumer  Net Mortgage   Mortgage

                          Credit       Lending  Approvals

                         % 3m/3m        stg bn      '000s

Date Out                  30-Aug        30-Aug     30-Aug

Median                       1.5           3.3       65.8

Forecast High                1.7           3.8       66.6

Forecast Low                 1.2           3.0       64.0

Standard Deviation           0.1           0.4        1.0

Count                          7             4         10

Prior                        1.5           4.1       64.7

Barclays                     1.7           3.0       66.0

Berenberg                    N/A           N/A       65.0

Capital Economics            1.2           N/A       66.5

Credit Suisse                N/A           N/A       64.0

Investec                     1.5           3.5       65.5

Lloyds TSB                   N/A           N/A       64.0

Nomura                       1.5           3.0       66.0

Oxford Economics             1.5           3.8       64.5

Pantheon                     1.4           N/A       66.0

Societe Generale             1.5           N/A       66.6

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE]