MNI China Daily Summary: Wednesday, October 16

MNI: ITALY FINAL HICP +1.2% M/M, +0.7%Y/Y

MNI BRIEF: BOJ's Adachi Sees Conditions For Normalisation

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY581.4 Bln via OMO Wednesday

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY642.4 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS WEDS

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.1191 Weds; +2.66% Y/Y

MNI: US SEP IMPORT PRICES -0.4%

MNI: CANADIAN AUG MANUFACTURING SALES -1.3% MOM

US MBA: REFIS -26% SA; PURCH INDEX -7% SA THRU OCT 11 WK

CANADA: Politics Week: Trudeau Faces More Pressure To Resign

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

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UK DATA: Inflation data less of a surprise than it appears at first glance

UK DATA
Data BulletCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • In terms of impact for the BOE. Given that a large part of the surprise was driven by air fares, it's not as big a surprise as at first glance.
  • Overall, services CPI at 4.94%Y/Y is 0.58ppt below the BOE's August MPR forecast.- that is partly driven by air fares, partly by hotel prices not being as strong as they were a few months ago, and then a very slight broad-based softening elsewhere.
  • Core goods at 0.20%Y/Y are higher than the BOE's forecast of -0.02%Y/Y, food prices are higher at 1.86%Y/Y vs 1.19% but energy is also softer than expected (due largely to petrol prices). These probably broadly offset each other - leaving the BOE's headline surprise driven by services.
  • But as we note above if you exclude air fares and accommodation, we estimate services is probably only marginally weaker than the BOE's forecast.
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  • In terms of impact for the BOE. Given that a large part of the surprise was driven by air fares, it's not as big a surprise as at first glance.
  • Overall, services CPI at 4.94%Y/Y is 0.58ppt below the BOE's August MPR forecast.- that is partly driven by air fares, partly by hotel prices not being as strong as they were a few months ago, and then a very slight broad-based softening elsewhere.
  • Core goods at 0.20%Y/Y are higher than the BOE's forecast of -0.02%Y/Y, food prices are higher at 1.86%Y/Y vs 1.19% but energy is also softer than expected (due largely to petrol prices). These probably broadly offset each other - leaving the BOE's headline surprise driven by services.
  • But as we note above if you exclude air fares and accommodation, we estimate services is probably only marginally weaker than the BOE's forecast.