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UK DATA: KPMG-REC data shows increasing labour market slack (but pre-Budget)

UK DATA
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  • The October KPMG-REC survey was conducted before the Budget with data collected between 10-25 October. So any results from the survey may be heightened by uncertainty in anticipation of the measures - but not in direct response to the announcements.
  • The permanent placements component fell at its fastest pace since March while temporary placements also fell further. The press release notes "reports of recruitment freezes" ahead of the Budget.
  • Staff availability continued to rise: for permanent workers the pace of increase was similar to that seen in recent months but for temporary workers at the fastest pace since December 2020. This indicates that with the Budget uncertainty it has been temporary workers that have seen the biggest impact.
  • Permanent pay growth fell to its lowest level since February 2021.
  • We assume the MPC will have seen this report ahead of its publication, so it should already be factored into their thoughts. Overall, the trends continue to point to a labour market that is loosening. But it's hard to draw hard conclusions from this report due to the uncertainty triggered ahead of the Budget.
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  • The October KPMG-REC survey was conducted before the Budget with data collected between 10-25 October. So any results from the survey may be heightened by uncertainty in anticipation of the measures - but not in direct response to the announcements.
  • The permanent placements component fell at its fastest pace since March while temporary placements also fell further. The press release notes "reports of recruitment freezes" ahead of the Budget.
  • Staff availability continued to rise: for permanent workers the pace of increase was similar to that seen in recent months but for temporary workers at the fastest pace since December 2020. This indicates that with the Budget uncertainty it has been temporary workers that have seen the biggest impact.
  • Permanent pay growth fell to its lowest level since February 2021.
  • We assume the MPC will have seen this report ahead of its publication, so it should already be factored into their thoughts. Overall, the trends continue to point to a labour market that is loosening. But it's hard to draw hard conclusions from this report due to the uncertainty triggered ahead of the Budget.