CANADA SEP CPI +1.6% YOY VS FORECAST +1.8%, PRIOR +2%

MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, October 15

MNI BRIEF: Iron Ore Prices Have Potential To Increase

MNI: PBOC Net Injects CNY26.2 Bln via OMO Tuesday

MNI: PBOC Sets Yuan Parity Higher At 7.0830 Tues; +3.03% Y/Y

CHINA PBOC CONDUCTS CNY68.3 BLN VIA 7-DAY REVERSE REPOS TUES

MNI: CANADA AUG WHOLESALE SALES -1.8%; EX-AUTOS -0.4%

MNI: CANADA SEP CPI INFLATION -0.4% M/M, +1.6% YY

MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX -11.9 OCT

CANADA: Politics Week: Parliament Opens With Early Election Threats

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

AUSTRALIA: Albanese Lines Up Budget for May Election

© 1982-2024 MNI. All rights reserved.
Terms | Privacy
Log Out
Free Trial

UK DATA: Regular pay moderates, but quantity side of labour data holding up

UK DATA
Data BulletCEEMEABulletUKGlobalFixed Income BulletsForeign Exchange BulletsRegionMarkets
  • Private sector regular pay inched up a little on the single month metric to GBP643/week. However, the 4.51% Y/Y increase in the single month rate is the lowest since 2021 (and notably lower than the 4.94% seen in July and the 4.98% seen in both May and June). There were only minimal revisions to the series. This is broadly in line with expectations but a notable softening given the lack of prior revisions.
  • Public sector bonuses have skewed the inc bonus readings higher - that can be ignored.
  • However, on the quantity side there was a larger pick up in employment than expected - and a pick up in the economic activity rate, both contributing to a fall in unemployment to 4.0% from 4.1% (consensus expected a continued print at 4.1% but had pencilled in upside risks to 4.2%).
  • Vacancies data continued to moderate, down 34k 3m/3m (which is a slightly slower fall than the past 3 readings and the V-U rate has now been stabilised around similar levels to the pre-Covid highs for the past 6 months.
  • We still question the validity of the employment data (and LFS data in general) and note that the unemployment rate has been in a 3.8-4.4% range for 24 consecutive months now.
  • We think on balance we don't think this data will be strong enough to change any MPC member's view. Regular wages continue to move in the right direction, but the quantity side is still holding up better than survey data suggest - but the validity of that is uncertain.
253 words

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
  • Private sector regular pay inched up a little on the single month metric to GBP643/week. However, the 4.51% Y/Y increase in the single month rate is the lowest since 2021 (and notably lower than the 4.94% seen in July and the 4.98% seen in both May and June). There were only minimal revisions to the series. This is broadly in line with expectations but a notable softening given the lack of prior revisions.
  • Public sector bonuses have skewed the inc bonus readings higher - that can be ignored.
  • However, on the quantity side there was a larger pick up in employment than expected - and a pick up in the economic activity rate, both contributing to a fall in unemployment to 4.0% from 4.1% (consensus expected a continued print at 4.1% but had pencilled in upside risks to 4.2%).
  • Vacancies data continued to moderate, down 34k 3m/3m (which is a slightly slower fall than the past 3 readings and the V-U rate has now been stabilised around similar levels to the pre-Covid highs for the past 6 months.
  • We still question the validity of the employment data (and LFS data in general) and note that the unemployment rate has been in a 3.8-4.4% range for 24 consecutive months now.
  • We think on balance we don't think this data will be strong enough to change any MPC member's view. Regular wages continue to move in the right direction, but the quantity side is still holding up better than survey data suggest - but the validity of that is uncertain.