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UK DATA: UK CPI Driver Details

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  • Comparing that to the forecasts services is a tenth higher than consensus but only 0.05ppt above the BOE unrounded forecast.
  • Core goods was also higher than forecast, 0.15ppt about the MNI median and 0.07ppt above the BOE forecast.
  • Going into the data, we had flagged upside risks from air fares, second hand cars and clothing - the first two of these saw larger upside surprises than expected while clothing increased more in line with expectations.
  • Air fares contributed 0.07ppt to the change in headline CPI (and about double this contribution to services). Package holidays partially offset this, contributing -0.03ppt.
  • Second hand cars we had expected to add 0.05ppt to headline CPI, but they were even stronger than we expected, adding 0.08ppt.
  • Clothing and footwear increased from 0.84%Y/Y to 1.03%Y/Y (in line with our expectations).
  • The biggest downside contributor was "recreation and culture", which contributed -0.11ppt to headline CPI, with cultural services contributing -0.06ppt of that alone.
  • Energy was the big contributor - but that was almost exactly in line with expectations.
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  • Comparing that to the forecasts services is a tenth higher than consensus but only 0.05ppt above the BOE unrounded forecast.
  • Core goods was also higher than forecast, 0.15ppt about the MNI median and 0.07ppt above the BOE forecast.
  • Going into the data, we had flagged upside risks from air fares, second hand cars and clothing - the first two of these saw larger upside surprises than expected while clothing increased more in line with expectations.
  • Air fares contributed 0.07ppt to the change in headline CPI (and about double this contribution to services). Package holidays partially offset this, contributing -0.03ppt.
  • Second hand cars we had expected to add 0.05ppt to headline CPI, but they were even stronger than we expected, adding 0.08ppt.
  • Clothing and footwear increased from 0.84%Y/Y to 1.03%Y/Y (in line with our expectations).
  • The biggest downside contributor was "recreation and culture", which contributed -0.11ppt to headline CPI, with cultural services contributing -0.06ppt of that alone.
  • Energy was the big contributor - but that was almost exactly in line with expectations.