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UK: First Debate A Dead Heat, Does Little To Shift Election Dial

UK
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The first televised debate of the general election campaign took place on the evening of 4 June, with PM Rishi Sunak facing off against Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. The ill-tempered affair allowed both main party leaders to repeat their main campaign points repeatedly, but has done little to change pre-existing perceptions at least according to snap polls and betting markets. 

  • A snap poll by YouGov showed essentiall a dead heat, with 51% saying Sunak won the debate to 49% saying Starmer was the victor. In a Savanta poll, Starmer was ajudged to have narrowly won by 44% to 39%. Notably, while both polls showed the leaders as close in terms of who 'won', Labour's Starmer was broadly seen as better on  'personality' questions. With YouGov starmer was seen as more trustworthy, likeable, and 'in touch with ordinary people', while Sunak was seen as more 'prime ministerial'. With Savanta Starmer was seen as more honest, thoughtful and good at remaining calm. 
  • Sunak's most effective moments came when claiming Labour would imposed a GBP2k tax hike on each UK household. With YouGov Sunak was seen as better on tax, and immigration, while Starmer won on cost of living, the health service, education, and climate change. 
  • Betting markets showed little reaction, with a Labour majority still seen as almost guaranteed with a 94.3% implied probability according to Smarkets. 
  • The next debate is a seven-way contest between senior figures from the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Reform, Green, Scottish Nationa, and Plaid Cmyru parties takes place on the BBC on 7 June. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of UK Election Outcome, %

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The first televised debate of the general election campaign took place on the evening of 4 June, with PM Rishi Sunak facing off against Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer. The ill-tempered affair allowed both main party leaders to repeat their main campaign points repeatedly, but has done little to change pre-existing perceptions at least according to snap polls and betting markets. 

  • A snap poll by YouGov showed essentiall a dead heat, with 51% saying Sunak won the debate to 49% saying Starmer was the victor. In a Savanta poll, Starmer was ajudged to have narrowly won by 44% to 39%. Notably, while both polls showed the leaders as close in terms of who 'won', Labour's Starmer was broadly seen as better on  'personality' questions. With YouGov starmer was seen as more trustworthy, likeable, and 'in touch with ordinary people', while Sunak was seen as more 'prime ministerial'. With Savanta Starmer was seen as more honest, thoughtful and good at remaining calm. 
  • Sunak's most effective moments came when claiming Labour would imposed a GBP2k tax hike on each UK household. With YouGov Sunak was seen as better on tax, and immigration, while Starmer won on cost of living, the health service, education, and climate change. 
  • Betting markets showed little reaction, with a Labour majority still seen as almost guaranteed with a 94.3% implied probability according to Smarkets. 
  • The next debate is a seven-way contest between senior figures from the Conservative, Labour, Liberal Democrat, Reform, Green, Scottish Nationa, and Plaid Cmyru parties takes place on the BBC on 7 June. 

Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of UK Election Outcome, %

Keep reading...Show less