October 09, 2024 09:14 GMT
UK FISCAL: New fiscal rules and near-term schedule (1/3)
UK FISCAL
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- The Guardian has reported that today is the deadline for Chancellor Reeves to confirm her new fiscal rules to the OBR ahead of the 30 October Budget. The newspaper also reports that Reeves briefed the cabinet about the Budget last night and will send over a first draft to the OBR today (with the full preliminary costings due to be reported back to the Treasury on Monday - round 3 of the 5 part forecast process).
- Note that there have already been two "pre-measures" rounds of forecasts from the OBR where some individual policies will have already been initially costed. There have been recent media reports that the government has watered down some of its proposals for changes to the capital gains tax applicable for carried interest and non-doms as the OBR judged that the proposals in their initial form would not raise money (and may in fact result in a net loss due to HNW individuals leaving the country).
- It appears as though the more "ideological" measures that won't raise much money (other than the VAT on private schools) are being watered down - and therefore the budget may not be as extreme as some market participants fear (we last rounded up some of the possible measures in the Gilt Week Ahead a couple of weeks ago).
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