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5Y Vol Buyer, 10Y Put Ongoing




Mixed Wing Trade


Some downside continuation

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  • A mix of UK/EU trade spat over the NI protocol and reported COVID spread acted to press GBP/USD through support at $1.4111, then $1.4083, before it met decent support at its May17 low of $1.4074 before it recovered to $1.4111 into ECB and US CPI release.
  • Headline CPI react saw rate drop to $1.4086 before it rallied back as market suggested CPI components likely to have Fed seeing inflation drivers as transitory(pushing back taper/rate hike thoughts) which weighed back on the USD. GBP/USD pushed up to $1.4178 into the close.
  • Consolidation between $1.4168/78 through the main part of the Asia session before rate marked a high of $1.4185 into Europe, pulling back to $1.4175 ahead of UK data.
  • UK monthly GDP (median 2.4%mm, 1.6%3m/3m), Trade, IP/Mfg 0600GMT.
  • Resistance $1.4185/90, with stronger interest noted between $1.4200/07, a break of $1.4210 to expose $1.4248(YTD high Jun01).
  • Support now seen at $1.4110/1.4095 ahead of $1.4074.
  • MNI Techs: GBPUSD traded higher yesterday, finding support at 1.4074. The pair is still trading in a range though below 1.4248, Jun 1 high. Trend conditions are bullish. The probe on Jun 1 of former resistance at 1.4237, Feb 24 high reinforces a bullish theme however a clear break is required to confirm a resumption of the trend. This would open 1.4315, April 18 2018 high. Key support is at the 50-day EMA at 1.4034 and 1.4006, May 13 low.