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UK GDP Data Applies Light Pressure To BoE Pricing

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HomepageBank Of England (BOE) Market NewsBulletMarketsFixed Income NewsForeign Exchange News

The softer-than-expected UK GDP data is the dominant factor for the BoE-dated OIS strip this morning.

  • That provides a slightly dovish bias for pricing, although the hold of technical resistance levels in gilt futures and spill over from hawkish ECB sources comments to RTRS, along with still elevated UK wage growth and inflation, limit the moves.
  • The liquid contracts are off dovish session extremes, running flat to 1.5bp cheaper on the day.
  • 21bp of tightening is showing for this month’s MPC meeting, while terminal policy rate pricing hovers around 5.65%.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-235.396+21.0
Nov-235.521+33.5
Dec-235.569+38.3
Feb-245.585+39.9
Mar-245.574+38.8
May-245.542+35.6
Jun-245.488+30.2
Aug-245.399+21.3
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The softer-than-expected UK GDP data is the dominant factor for the BoE-dated OIS strip this morning.

  • That provides a slightly dovish bias for pricing, although the hold of technical resistance levels in gilt futures and spill over from hawkish ECB sources comments to RTRS, along with still elevated UK wage growth and inflation, limit the moves.
  • The liquid contracts are off dovish session extremes, running flat to 1.5bp cheaper on the day.
  • 21bp of tightening is showing for this month’s MPC meeting, while terminal policy rate pricing hovers around 5.65%.
BoE MeetingSONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%)Difference Vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp)
Sep-235.396+21.0
Nov-235.521+33.5
Dec-235.569+38.3
Feb-245.585+39.9
Mar-245.574+38.8
May-245.542+35.6
Jun-245.488+30.2
Aug-245.399+21.3