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UK GfK Consumer Confidence Falls for the First Time Since Oct-23

UK DATA
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UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell -2 points to -21 in February, slightly weaker than expected (-18 forecast, -19 prior). It remains below the long-run average of -10, although, on a year-on-year basis, this months reading is a +17 point improvement.

  • As the chart shows, consumer confidence has been improving since headline inflation started to moderate towards the end of 2022. This relationship has continued through 2023 and into the start of 2024. However, the closer we are to inflation being around "normal" levels, the more we would expect this relationship to breakdown. Furthermore, consumers' disposable income could be impacted by changes in the upcoming Budget.
  • In terms of the month-on-month changes, all sub-components were down, except for 'Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months' which was unchanged from January at 0. Despite this, all five sub-components remain comfortably above levels seen in February 2023.
  • The 'Major Purchase Index' sub-component fell the most this month by -5 points to -25, whilst Savings Index (not included in the GfK Index Score) rose +2 points to 29, 10 points above February 2023 levels.
  • February’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2003 individuals from February 1st to February 15th, 2024.
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UK GfK Consumer Confidence fell -2 points to -21 in February, slightly weaker than expected (-18 forecast, -19 prior). It remains below the long-run average of -10, although, on a year-on-year basis, this months reading is a +17 point improvement.

  • As the chart shows, consumer confidence has been improving since headline inflation started to moderate towards the end of 2022. This relationship has continued through 2023 and into the start of 2024. However, the closer we are to inflation being around "normal" levels, the more we would expect this relationship to breakdown. Furthermore, consumers' disposable income could be impacted by changes in the upcoming Budget.
  • In terms of the month-on-month changes, all sub-components were down, except for 'Personal Financial Situation over the next 12 months' which was unchanged from January at 0. Despite this, all five sub-components remain comfortably above levels seen in February 2023.
  • The 'Major Purchase Index' sub-component fell the most this month by -5 points to -25, whilst Savings Index (not included in the GfK Index Score) rose +2 points to 29, 10 points above February 2023 levels.
  • February’s survey was conducted among a sample of 2003 individuals from February 1st to February 15th, 2024.