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UK hiking probabilities reassessed (again)

BONDS
  • UK market pricing has continued to bounce around this week, with expectations of hikes increasing again today, helping gilts to underperform both Bunds and Treasuries. The triggers include a better than expected retail sales print (which is still very disappointing in the details and showing a downtrend) and more sellside outfits increasing their BOE hike expectations after the strong labour market data earlier this week. BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill also spoke this morning and sounded as though he would back 25bp hikes at the next two meetings and potentially then continue voting for 25bp. He sounded far away from voting for a 50bp hike, though, in our opinion. For more on Pill's speech click here.
  • The gilt curve has largely seen a parallel move with US and German curves bear steepening a little - reversing some of yesterday's moves.
  • The rest of the day's calendar looks rather light with ECB's Centeno and de Cos both due to speak again (but unlikely to say much new). We also have Eurozone consumer confidence data at 15:00BST / 16:00CET.
  • TY1 futures are down -0-3 today at 119-19+ with 10y UST yields up 2.4bp at 2.864% and 2y yields up 2.1bp at 2.631%.
  • Bund futures are down -0.52 today at 153.36 with 10y Bund yields up 3.5bp at 0.982% and Schatz yields up 1.9bp at 0.376%.
  • Gilt futures are down -0.53 today at 118.58 with 10y yields up 4.7bp at 1.910% and 2y yields up 4.7bp at 1.525%.
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