May 22, 2024 14:48 GMT
UK: Major Repricing In Betting Markets Sees July Election As Favourite
UK
There has been a major repricing in political betting markets in recent hours, with a Q324 general election now seen as the most likely date. According to data from Smarkets, there is now an 87.0% implied probability of a Q324 general election (likely July) compared to an 11.6% of the vote taking place in Q424. This compares to 24 hours ago, when the figure for Q324 stood at 14.3% and the Q424 implied probability at 79.4%.
Chart 1. Implied Probability of Date of Next General Election by Quarter, Last 24 Hours, %
![](https://media.marketnews.com/2024_05_22_15_42_55_Date_of_next_general_election_by_quarter_News_and_Politics_odds_Smarkets_b_5de93c558f.png)
Source: Smarkets
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