UK Monthly GDP Rose As Schools Reopen

MAR GDP +2.1% M/M (PREV +0.7%), +1.4% Y/Y (PREV -7.8%)

MAR INDEX OF SERVICES +1.9% M/M; +0.7% Y/Y; PRV +0.6% M/M, MED +2.0%

MAR IND PRODUCTION +1.8% M/M, PRV +1.0%, MED +1.0%

MAR MANUFACTURING +2.1% M/M, PRV +1.5%, MEDIAN +1.0%

MAR CONSTRUCTION +5.8% M/M, PRV +2.3%, MEDIAN +1.3%

• M/M GDP rose by 2.1% in Mar, coming in stronger than expected (BBG: 1.4%). This marks the second successive gain and the highest level since Aug 2020. Feb's growth rate was revised up from 0.4% to 0.7%.
• Annual GDP increased by 1.4% in Mar, reflecting the initial decline at the start of the pandemic in Mar 2020.
• Despite Mar's uptick, GDP remains 5.9% below Feb 2020's pre-pandemic level.
• Mar's uptick was driven by retail and the return to school, the ONS noted, with service sector output up by 1.9%.
• Within the service sector, education output saw the largest gain in Mar, rising by 8.9%.
• While industrial production ticked up by 1.8% in Mar, manufacturing output edged 2.1% higher, both increasing by more than markets expected
• The construction sector saw another gain in Mar, rising by 5.8% and surpassing market expectations. This marks the highest growth rate since Jul 2020. Quarterly construction output rose above the pre-crisis level.
• While exports to the EU improved further in Mar and are almost at their Dec level, imports from the EU remain subdued in Q1 and imports from non-EU countries were higher for the first time on record.