UK: PM-'Election Will Take Place In Second Half Of Year'

Speaking in the House of Commons, PM Rishi Sunak fails to confirm or deny the rumours surrounding the calling of a snap general election for 4 July. He responds to a question from the SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn saying "Spoiler alert, there is going to be a general election in the second half of this year”. Of course this leaves both July, but also the pundits/bookies' favourite of Oct-Nov as possible dates. 

• As Anushka Asthana at ITV notes, "Tomorrow would be last day for July 4 election. And no one thinks later in summer possible." This is because once permission for dissolving parliament has been sought from the King (whom the PM usually meets on a Wednesday), there are several days in between this point and the actual dissolution of parliament. This period is called 'wash-up', in which the gov't attempts to pass oustanding legislation that would otherwise fall if not given Royal Assent by dissolution/prorogation. 
• There is a period of 25 working days between dissolution and polling day, which in the UK always falls on Thursdays. There is also the general assumption that Sunak would not call an election beyond the first week of July, or into August, for fear of the destabilising impact in some constituencies of holding a vote during the peak of summer holidays. The last summer election that took place later than the first week of July was in 1895. 
• As such, should Sunak not call an election for 4 July today or tomorrow, it is very unlikely that it will take place before the autumn. 

Source: IFG