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UK PM: We Believe We Can Achieve NI Protocol Changes This Year

EU-UK

Speaking from the G7 summit in Bavaria, Germany, UK PM Boris Johnson states that he believes his gov't can pass the legislation required to unilaterally alter the Northern Ireland protocol within 2022.

  • The second reading of the Northern Ireland Protocol bill is set to take place in the House of Commons later today around 1530BST (1030ET, 1630CET).
  • The contentious piece of legislation is unlikely to have a smooth path through parliament. All opposition parties (barring the Democratic Unionist Party) set to oppose the bill, and there is likely to be significant intervention from pro-soft Brexit Conservatives uneasy with the potential breaches in international law the bill could entail.
  • Once past the Commons, it faces an even more difficult challenge getting through the House of Lords, where the Conservatives do not hold a majority. The bill is likely to be subjected to numerous amendments in the Lords, after which it is sent back to the Commons for review. This process, known as 'ping pong', can continue for some time and could push the passing of the bill back significantly (potentially into 2023).
  • The EU is seen as likely to hold off on its most impactful retaliatory action (imposing trade tariffs) until the legislation is passed, with the period up until then viewed as time in which further negotiations can take place.

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