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UK PMI due at 9:30BST

UK DATA
  • The headline number of course is important here, as always, but even more important will be whether the report still points to evidence of lower passthrough of costs to prices (services prices in particular).
  • This was something that was evident in last month's PMI surveys and has been picked up by the BOE's Agents' survey. And because of this, MPC members have placed less emphasis on wage growth.
  • The case for a June cut has been greatly diminished following the higher CPI print yesterday and markets now only price around 1bp of cuts for June, cumulatively 9bp by August, 16bp by September and 34bp by year-end. More passthrough of costs to prices (which may have been behind some of the increase in accommodation / restaurant / food prices in the April print) would possibly push markets to even more hawkish levels. Note that the National Living Wage increased in April.
  • Continued evidence of less passthrough, however, is not likely to be enough of a catalyst to see a substantial retracement of yesterday's moves.
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