UK Prel. Data F'casts: Aug BOE MPC Minutes, Inflation Report

By Jamie Satchithanantham

     LONDON (MNI) - All eyes will be on 'Super Thursday' next week with the Bank

of England set to publish the minutes from its latest monetary policy meeting,

alongside the third Quarterly Inflation Report of the year.

     Since the last MPC meeting - where Ian McCafferty and Michael Saunders

surprised virtually everybody by joining the usual suspect Kristin Forbes in

voting to hike the Bank Rate by 0.25 basis points - chatter of policy

tightening, which gained traction immediately after the June 14 meeting, died

down somewhat as relatively soft economic data rolled in.

     All but one of the analysts polled thus far expect Bank Rate to hold firm

at 0.25%. Nomura, the exception, judge that the conditions required to warrant a

tightening in policy are now in place, forecasting a 0.25bp hike to 0.5%.

     As for the Bank Rate vote breakdown, consistent with the median forecast

for an unchanged Bank Rate, analysts see a 6-2 (unchanged-hike) split as the

likeliest outcome. Kristin Forbes, the lone dissenter before June, is no longer

a member on the MPC. 

     For the vote breakdown to match June's 5-3 outturn, another MPC member

would have to join McCafferty and Saunders, assuming that that pair do not have

a change of heart. 

     The August meeting will be the first attended by Silvana Tenreyro but will

have come too early for Dave Ramsden, appointed the new Deputy Governor, who

will begin his tenure on September 4.     

     Of the analysts who expressed a forecast on the level of Quantitative

Easing (QE), none foresee a winding down of QE commencing in August.     

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                                   Aug                  Aug                  Aug

                                   BOE                  BOE                  BOE

                   MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision  MPC Policy Decision

                           Bank Rate %           Unch. Vote            Hike Vote

Date Out                        03-Aug               03-Aug               03-Aug

Median                            0.25                    6                    2

Forecast High                     0.50                    6                    5

Forecast Low                      0.25                    3                    2

Standard

Deviation                          0.1                    1                    1

Count                               15                    8                    8

Prior                             0.25                  5.0                  3.0

ABN Amro                          0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Bayern                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Barclays                          0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Capital Economics                 0.25                    5                    3

Credit Suisse                     0.25                    6                    2

Commerzbank                       0.25                    6                    2

Investec                          0.25                    6                    2

LBBW                              0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Nordea                            0.25                    6                    2

Nomura                            0.50                    3                    5

Oxford Economics                  0.25                  N/A                  N/A

RBC                               0.25                    5                    3

Scotia                            0.25                  N/A                  N/A

Stan Chart                        0.25                    5                    3

UniCredit                         0.25                  N/A                  N/A

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                                    Aug                      Aug

                                    BOE                      BOE

                    MPC Policy Decision      MPC Policy Decision

                    Asset Purch Stg bln  Corp Bond Purch Stg bln

Date Out                         03-Aug                   03-Aug

Median                           435.00                    10.00

Forecast High                     435.0                     10.0

Forecast Low                      435.0                     10.0

Standard Deviation                  0.0                      0.0

Count                                10                        4

Prior                             435.0                     10.0

ABN Amro                          435.0                      N/A

Barclays                          435.0                     10.0

Capital Economics                 435.0                     10.0

Investec                          435.0                     10.0

LBBW                              435.0                      N/A

Nordea                            435.0                      N/A

Nomura                            435.0                      N/A

Oxford Economics                  435.0                      N/A

RBC                               435.0                     10.0

Standard Chartered                435.0                      N/A

     These surveys will be updated on Monday July 31.

--MNI London Bureau; +44 203-586-2226; email: jamie.satchithanantham@marketnews.com

[TOPICS: MTABLE,MABDT$,M$B$$$,M$E$$$]