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UK Public Sector Finance Also Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
  • These data are not normally too market moving but may become more closely watched later this summer ahead of the Autumn Budget, alongside which the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility - the UK's independent fiscal forecaster) will release new forecasts alongside.
  • Central Government Net Cash Requirement is running a cumulative GBP10.6bln above the OBR monthly forecast at a cumulative GBP42.9bln (vs GBP32.2bln forecast in the first two months of 2024/25).
  • For PSNBex, the Bloomberg consensus looks for GBP11.4bln (vs 15.0bln prior) and has a downside skew among analyst forecasts ranging from GBP 17.5bln to 10.5bln. On Public Sector Net Borrowing, the Bloomberg median looks for GBP10.8bln (vs OBR forecast of GBP11.6bln, GBP14.1bln prior).
  • The OBR forecasts central government net borrowing to edge down to GBP11.7bln (vs GBP14.9bln in May), with receipts expected to rise whilst expenditure edges down slightly. Since economic growth has beaten the OBR's expectations so far, tax receipts may print even firmer.
  • Of particular note on this month's release
    • PAYE receipts and NI contributions are expected to edge up in part reflecting higher than expected earnings growth.
    • Self-assessed income tax receipts should edge up compare to last month as early payments/tax submissions begin to be made.
    • Meanwhile, interest payments according to OBR forecasts are expected to fall to GBP7.4bln - this is based on previous expectations of interest rate cuts potentially this summer and inflation having fallen to a lower level (which impacts linkers). There is an upside risk here - also looking at historical patterns interest payments tend to peak in June.
  • This will be the third release for the 24/25 financial year although we expect both June and May's OBR monthly profile to be released later today, and a new OBR forecasts in the Budget which will have it's date set before 30 July.
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