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UK Public Sector Finance Due at 7:00 BST

UK DATA
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  • These data are not normally too market moving but may become more closely watched ahead of the Autumn Budget on 30th October, alongside which the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility - the UK's independent fiscal forecaster) will release new forecasts.
  • The Central Government Net Cash Requirement is running a cumulative GBP4.5bln above the OBR monthly forecast at a cumulative GBP52.4bln (vs GBP10.6bln above forecast in the first three months of 2024/25).
  • Whilst Public Sector Net Cash Requirement is currently GBP13.6bln below the year-to-date OBR forecast of GBP20.2bln, the OBR forecasts a July reading of GBP14.0bln (vs 6.6bln prior).
  • For PSNBex, the Bloomberg consensus looks for GBP1.5bln (vs 14.5bln prior) and has a downward skew among analyst forecasts ranging from GBP0.4bln to GBP4.0bln.
  • The OBR forecasts central government net borrowing to edge further down to GBP11.3bln (vs 14.6bln in June), with both receipts and expenditure expected to rise. Combined with the negative public corporations and local authorities net borrowing forecasts this leaves the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing at GBP0.1bln (vs 11.6bln prior).
  • July is a big month for self-assessment income tax receipts and also sees a big quarterly payment from the Treasury to the APF.
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  • These data are not normally too market moving but may become more closely watched ahead of the Autumn Budget on 30th October, alongside which the OBR (Office for Budget Responsibility - the UK's independent fiscal forecaster) will release new forecasts.
  • The Central Government Net Cash Requirement is running a cumulative GBP4.5bln above the OBR monthly forecast at a cumulative GBP52.4bln (vs GBP10.6bln above forecast in the first three months of 2024/25).
  • Whilst Public Sector Net Cash Requirement is currently GBP13.6bln below the year-to-date OBR forecast of GBP20.2bln, the OBR forecasts a July reading of GBP14.0bln (vs 6.6bln prior).
  • For PSNBex, the Bloomberg consensus looks for GBP1.5bln (vs 14.5bln prior) and has a downward skew among analyst forecasts ranging from GBP0.4bln to GBP4.0bln.
  • The OBR forecasts central government net borrowing to edge further down to GBP11.3bln (vs 14.6bln in June), with both receipts and expenditure expected to rise. Combined with the negative public corporations and local authorities net borrowing forecasts this leaves the OBR forecast for public sector net borrowing at GBP0.1bln (vs 11.6bln prior).
  • July is a big month for self-assessment income tax receipts and also sees a big quarterly payment from the Treasury to the APF.