UK Sellside GDP Views (Low to High): 1/3

RBC

• “Our best estimate is that GDP is likely to post a fall of -1.5%m/m consistent with our expectation of an overall fall in GDP of 0.3% q/q for the quarter as a whole.”
• “Does it really matter, at least from a monetary policy perspective? The main impact of events such as June’s extra bank holiday tend to be to the timing of activity with most recovered in the subsequent period. More important for the outlook for monetary policy therefore will be how GDP recovers in July given the number of one-off factors during the quarter. “

JP Morgan

• Forecast -1.5%M/M for monthly GDP and -0.3%Q/Q for quarterly GDP.
• “We expect a large contraction in June GDP, specifically related to the two additional bank holidays in that month related to the Queen’s jubilee. There is uncertainty about the precise magnitude of the impact, which will not be possible to fully assess until the July data are in. But survey data remains consistent with the economy showing modest but positive underlying growth.”

TD Securities

• Forecasts -1.4%M/M for monthly GDP and -0.2%Q/Q for quarterly GDP.
• “While GDP likely saw its largest m/m decline since Jan 2021, we think the principal driver of the decline will be the addition of two extra bank holidays, rather than weak underlying growth dynamics. Excluding holiday effects, we think June GDP growth was slightly positive, despite households being further squeezed by additional increases in the cost of living.”