MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - USD/JPY Slide Exposes Key Support

MNI (LONDON) - Price Signal Summary – USD/JPY Slide Exposes Key Support

• The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh trend high once again Thursday. The continuation higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last week, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle.
• GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and Thursday’s strong impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. The move higher has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. USDJPY traded sharply lower Thursday. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and this exposed the next important support at 158.24, the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year. The line has been pierced, a clear break is required to highlight a potential reversal. USDCAD traded lower Thursday before recovering. A short-term bear threat remains present. The recent break of the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3667, reinforces a bearish condition and exposes 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support.
• Gold remains constructive and Thursday's rally reinforces short-term bullish conditions. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break represents a bullish development that opens the key resistance at $2450.1. WTI futures have recovered from Wednesday’s low and the recent bear leg appears to have been a correction. Recent cycle highs reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term.
• The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. However, the contract has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 131.57. This does signal scope for an extension and has exposed 132.51. Gilt futures traded higher Thursday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. However, resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. A continuation would expose key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE

EURUSD TECHS: Impulsive Rally Exposes Key Resistance            

• RES 4: 1.0981 High Mar 3   
• RES 3: 1.0943 High Jan 21
• RES 2: 1.0916 High Jun 04 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: 1.0900 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 1.0870 @ 05:51 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.0787/10 20-day EMA / Low Jul 2   
• SUP 2: 1.0666 Low Jun 26 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 1.0650 Low May 1
• SUP 4: 1.0601 Low Apr 16 and a key support 

EURUSD traded higher Thursday and this resulted in a break of 1.0845, the Jul 8 high. The move higher confirms a resumption of the current short-term bull cycle. Note too that resistance at 1.0852 has also been cleared, the clear break signals scope for an extension towards 1.0916, the Jun 4 high and the next key resistance. Initial support to watch is unchanged at 1.0787, the 20-day EMA. 

GBPUSD TECHS: Resistance Has Been Cleared             

• RES 4: 1.3142 High Jul 14 ‘23 and a key resistance   
• RES 3: 1.3035 1.764 proj of the Apr 22 - May 3 - 9 price swing 
• RES 2: 1.2996 High Jul 27 2023 
• RES 1: 1.2949 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 1.2913 @ 06:08 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 1.2848 Low Jul 11  
• SUP 2: 1.2752/2705 20- and 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.2613 Low Jun 27
• SUP 4: 1.2584 Low May 15   

GBPUSD remains in a bull-mode condition and Thursday’s strong impulsive rally reinforces current conditions. The move higher has resulted in a break of key short-term resistance at 1.2860, the Jun 12 high and a bull trigger. This was followed by a breach of 1.2894, the Mar 8 high and a key medium-term resistance, strengthening a bullish condition. The break opens 1.2996, the Jul 27 ‘23 high. Initial firm support is 1.2735, the 20-day EMA.    

EURGBP TECHS: Trend Structure Remains Bearish                         

• RES 4: 0.8586 76.4% retracement of the Apr 23 - Jun 14 bear leg  
• RES 3: 0.8568 High May 20
• RES 2: 0.8489/99 50-day EMA / High Jul 1 
• RES 1: 0.8459 20-day EMA  
• PRICE: 0.8419 @ 06:43 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.8413 Low Jul 11 and intraday low     
• SUP 2: 0.8397 Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.8388 Low Aug 17 2022
• SUP 4: 0.8366 2.236 proj of the Apr 23 - 30 - May 9 price swing 

EURGBP traded lower again Thursday extending the gap with the recent high on Jul 1. The outlook remains bearish and trend signals continue to point south. Support at 0.8431, the Jun 25 low, has been cleared and this paves the way for a move towards 0.8397, the Jun 14 low and the bear trigger. Clearance of this level resumes the downtrend. Key resistance at 0.8489 is intact, the 50-day EMA. A break of it would highlight a stronger reversal.   

USDJPY TECHS: Has Pierced Key Trendline Support 

• RES 4: 164.44 2.0% 10-dma envelope      
• RES 3: 163.36 2.00 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 162.21 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 14 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 159.95/161.95 20-day EMA / High Jul 3 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 158.99 @ 06:55 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 157.44 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 156.83 38.2% retracement of the Dec 28 ‘23 - Jul 3 bull run    
• SUP 3: 155.72 Low Jun 12 
• SUP 4: 154.55 Low Jun 4 

USDJPY traded sharply lower Thursday. The pair has breached the 20-day EMA and this exposed the next important support at 158.24, the trendline drawn from the Dec 28 low last year. The line has been pierced, a clear break is required to highlight a potential reversal. This would open 156.83, a Fibonacci retracement. For bulls, a reversal higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at 161.95, the Jul 3 high.   

EURJPY TECHS: Trendline Support Remains Intact For Now

• RES 4: 177.27 2.0% 10-dma envelope 
• RES 3: 176.82 1.764 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 2: 176.03 1.618 proj of the May 3 - 15 - 16 price swing
• RES 1: 173.94/175.43 61.8% of the Jul 11 - 12 sell-off / High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 172.83 @ 07:11 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 171.52 Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 170.10 Trendline from the Dec 7 ‘23 low 
• SUP 3: 167.53 Low Jun 14 
• SUP 4: 167.33 Low May 16 

A sharp sell-off in EURJPY Thursday resulted in a print below the 20-day EMA. For now, short-term weakness appears to be a correction. Attention is on the key support at 170.10, a trendline drawn from the Dec 7 ‘23 low. A clear break of this line is required to highlight a stronger reversal. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 175.43, Thursday’s intraday high. A break would resume the uptrend.      

AUDUSD TECHS: Bull Trend Remains Intact        

• RES 4: 0.6895 High Jul 13 / 14 2023    
• RES 3: 0.6871 High Dec 28 and a key resistance                
• RES 2: 0.6839 High Jan 02
• RES 1: 0.6799 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 0.6762 @ 08:02 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 0.6694 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 0.6651 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 0.6576 Low Jun 10 and a key support
• SUP 4: 0.6558 Low May 8

AUDUSD bullish conditions remain intact and the pair traded to a fresh short-term cycle high Thursday. The move higher extends the recent breach of resistance at 0.6714, the May 16 high. The clearance of 0.6714, confirmed a resumption of the bull leg that started Apr 19. Sights are on 0.6839 next, the Jan 2 high. Key short-term support has been defined at 0.6576, the Jun 10 low. Initial firm support is at 0.6694, the 20-day EMA. 

USDCAD TECHS: Tests Key Support                  

• RES 4: 1.3899 High Nov 1 and a key resistance    
• RES 3: 1.3846/55 High Apr 16 and the bull trigger / High Nov 10 2023
• RES 2: 1.3755/3792 High Jul 2 / High Jun 11
• RES 1: 1.3667 50-day EMA
• PRICE: 1.3629 @ 08:05 BST Jul 12 
• SUP 1: 1.3590/89 Low May 16 and a key support / Intraday low 
• SUP 2: 1.3547 Low Apr 9
• SUP 3: 1.3512 50.0% retracement of the Dec 27 - Apr 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 1.3478 Low Apr 4 

USDCAD traded lower Thursday before recovering. A short-term bear threat remains present. The recent break of the 50-day EMA - currently at 1.3667, reinforces a bearish condition and exposes 1.3590, the May 16 low and a key support. It has been pierced, a clear breach of it would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.3755, the Jul 2 high. Clearance of this level would be bullish. 

FIXED INCOME

BUND TECHS: (U4) Corrective Cycle Extends                                     

• RES 4: 133.21 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger          
• RES 3: 132.80 High Jun 25 
• RES 2: 132.51 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 3 bear leg 
• RES 1: 132.08 High Jul 11                    
• PRICE: 131.62 @ 05:32 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 130.78/23 Low Jul 9 / 3 and key short-term support           
• SUP 2: 129.52 Low Jun 10
• SUP 3: 129.37 Low May 31 and the bear trigger
• SUP 4: 129.00 Round number support 

The trend condition in Bund futures remains bearish and short-term gains appear to be corrective. However, the contract has traded through resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 131.57. This does signal scope for an extension and has exposed 132.51, a Fibonacci retracement point. Clearance of this level would expose 132.21, the Jun 14 high. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support at 130.23, the Jul 3 low.   

BOBL TECHS: (U4) Near-Term Bull Cycle Remains In Play                                        

• RES 4: 117.160 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger    
• RES 2: 116.920 High Jun 24     
• RES 3: 116.775 76.4% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg    
• RES 1: 116.570 High Jul 11             
• PRICE: 116.010 @ 05:41 BST Jul 10
• SUP 1: 115.900 Low Jul 9     
• SUP 2: 115.530 Low Jul and the key short-term support    
• SUP 3: 115.180 Low Jun 10
• SUP 4: 115.060 Low May 31 and the bear trigger  

The trend set-up in Bobl futures is unchanged and the outlook remains bearish. However, a corrective cycle remains in play and yesterday’s strong gains strengthen the near-term bullish theme. A resumption of gains would open 116.775, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would expose 117.160, the Jun 14 high and bull trigger. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on 115.530, the Jul 5 low and a key support.             

SCHATZ TECHS: (U4) Strong Rally                            

• RES 4: 105.975 High Jun 14 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 105.837 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg   
• RES 2: 105.805 High Jun 26       
• RES 1: 105.752 61.8% retracement of the Jun 14 - Jul 5 bear leg  
• PRICE: 105.685 @ 06:17 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 105.495/390 Low Jul 11 / 5       
• SUP 2: 105.314 76.4% retracement of the May 24 Jun 14 bull cycle
• SUP 3: 105.175 Low Jun 7 
• SUP 4: 105.110 Low May 24 and the bear trigger   

Schatz futures traded higher Thursday. This signals scope an extension towards 105.752 and 105.837, Fibonacci retracement points. A break of 105.837 would strengthen a bullish theme and expose 105.975, the Jun 14 high and a key resistance. On the downside, a reversal would refocus attention on key short-term support at 105.390, the Jul 5 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme.                      

GILT TECHS: (U4) Recovery Extends                                      

• RES 4: 100.00 Psychological round number  
• RES 3: 99.62 1.382 proj of the May 29 - Jun 4 - 10 price swing
• RES 2: 98.92/99.23 High Jun 25 / 21 and a key resistance 
• RES 1: 98.53 High Jul 11 
• PRICE: 98.51 @ Close Jul 11 
• SUP 1: 97.63/96.57 Low Jul 11 / 1 and a key support      
• SUP 2: 96.25 76.4% retracement of the May 29 - Jun 21 bull run      
• SUP 3: 96.12 Low Jun 10 
• SUP 4: 95.33 Low May 29 and a key support   

Gilt futures traded higher Thursday and the contract is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. However, resistance at 98.24, the Jun 28 high, has been cleared. A continuation would expose key short-term resistance at 99.23, the Jun 21 high. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at 97.63, Thursday’s low. A break would highlight a reversal and this would refocus attention on 96.57, the Jul 1 low and a key short-term support.   

BTP TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Remains In Play  

• RES 4: 119.55 1.764 proj  of the Jun 11 - 21 - Jul 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 119.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 118.58 High May 16 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 117.99 High Jul 11
• PRICE: 117.57 @ 07:08 BST Jul 12 
• SUP 1: 116.43 20-day EMA   
• SUP 2: 116.07 Low Jul 8 
• SUP 3: 114.72 Low Jul 2 
• SUP 4: 114.35 Low Jun 11 and key support 

BTP futures have recovered from 114.72, the Jul 2 low. This week’s gains have resulted in a break of resistance at 117.09, the Jun 21 high, and firmer resistance at 117.62, the Jun 5 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and signals scope for a climb towards 118.58, the May 16 high and a key resistance. Initial support lies at 116.43, the 20-day EMA. A clear break of it would highlight a potential reversal.                        

EQUITIES

EUROSTOXX50 TECHS: (U4) Bull Cycle Still In Play      

• RES 4: 5151.00 High May 16 and the bull trigger
• RES 3: 5132.00 High Jun 6       
• RES 2: 5082.32 76.4% retracement of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off
• RES 1: 5067.00 High Jul 8   
• PRICE: 5011.00 @ 06:36 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 4903.00/4860.00 Low Jul 2 / Low Jun 14 and the bear trigger
• SUP 2: 4846.00 Low Apr 19 and a key support 
• SUP 3: 4800.00 Round number support   
• SUP 4: 4785.40 2.236 proj of the May 16 - Jun 4 - 6 price swing    

A bull cycle in Eurostoxx 50 futures remains intact. Attention is on resistance at 5039.84, 61.8% of the May 16 - Jun 14 sell-off. It was pierced last week, a clear break of it would be a positive development and suggest scope for an extension of the bull cycle that started Jun 14. This would open 5082.32, the 76.4% retracement. A stronger reversal would instead expose 4846.00, the Apr 19 low and a key support.     

E-MINI S&P TECHS: (U4) Bullish Trend Sequence Remains Intact   

• RES 4: 5764.00 3.50 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing 
• RES 3: 5741.34 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 2: 5713.31 3.236 proj of the Apr 19 - 29 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: 5707.75 High Jul 11      
• PRICE:5642.00 @ 07:47 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: 5630.00 Low Jul 11
• SUP 2: 5559.64/5453.20 20- and 50-day EMA values
• SUP 3: 5398.75 Low Jun 11 
• SUP 4: 5267.75 Low May 31 and key support

The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bullish and the contract traded to a fresh trend high once again Thursday. The continuation higher confirms a resumption of the uptrend and maintains the bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a clear bull-mode set-up too and this continues to highlight positive market sentiment. Sights are on the 5713.31, a Fibonacci projection. Firm support is at 5559.64, the 20-day EMA.     

COMMODITIES

BRENT TECHS: (U4) Bullish Trend Sequence Intact              

• RES 4: $91.99 - 2.236 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing 
• RES 3: $90.23 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 8 - 29 - Feb 5 price swing
• RES 2: $89.32 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $87.95 - High Jul 5    
• PRICE: $85.68 @ 07:03 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $83.83 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 2: $79.05/76.66 - Low Jun 7 / 4  
• SUP 3: $75.31 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $73.37 - Low Dec 13 and a key support  

The trend condition in Brent futures remains bullish and the latest move down appears to have been a correction. Recent gains highlight an extension of the current bullish sequence of higher highs and higher lows. This signals scope for a climb towards $89.32, the Apr 12 high and a key resistance. Clearance of this level would be seen as an important medium-term bullish development. Initial firm support to watch is $83.83, the 50-day EMA.   

WTI TECHS: (Q4) Support Stays Intact                    

• RES 4: $90.78 - High Oct 20 2023 (cont)
• RES 3: $90.00 - Psychological round number
• RES 2: $85.27 - High Apr 12 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $84.52 - High Jul 5   
• PRICE: $83.17@ 07:16 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $79.91 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: $74.94/72.44 - Low Jun 10 / 4
• SUP 3: $71.05 - Low Feb 5
• SUP 4: $69.22 - Low Dec 13 ‘23 and a key support 

WTI futures have recovered from Wednesday’s low and the recent bear leg appears to have been a correction. Recent cycle highs reinforced bullish conditions, signalling scope for a continuation higher near-term. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up too, highlighting a rising trend. Sights are on $85.27, the Apr 12 high and a bull trigger. Initial firm support to watch is $79.91, the 50-day EMA.        

GOLD TECHS: Bullish Short-Term Set-Up      

• RES 4: $2481.5 - 2.764 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing   
• RES 3: $2452.5 - 2.618 proj of the Oct 6 - 27 - Nov 13 price swing
• RES 2: $2450.1 - High May 20 and the bull trigger
• RES 1: $2424.6 - High Jul 11                
• PRICE: $2404.1 @ 07:31 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $2332.8/2286.9 - 50-day EMA / Low Jun 7       
• SUP 2: $2277.4 - Low May 3 and a pivot support
• SUP 3: $2187.4 - Low Mar 28  
• SUP 4: $2146.2 - Low Mar 18 and key short-term support

Gold remains constructive and Thursday's rally reinforces short-term bullish conditions. Recent gains have resulted in a breach of $2387.8, the Jun 7 high. This undermines a recent bearish theme and a clear break represents a bullish development that opens the key resistance at $2450.1, May 20 high. Initial support to watch lies at the 50-day EMA, at 2332.8. A clear break of this average would alter the picture and expose $2277.4, May 3 low.    

SILVER TECHS: Bull Cycle                   

• RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing        
• RES 3: $35.226 - 50.0% of the Apr 2011 - Mar 2020 bear leg
• RES 2: $33.880 - 1.00 proj of the Jan 22 - Apr 12 - May 2 price swing
• RES 1: $32.518 - High May 20 and bull trigger               
• PRICE: $30.747 @ 08:10 BST Jul 12
• SUP 1: $30.219/28.573- 20-day EMA / Low Jun 26 and bear trigger               
• SUP 2: $27.971 - Low May 13  
• SUP 3: $26.018 - Low May 2 and a key support  
• SUP 4: $24.328 - Low Mar 27

Silver has recently recovered from its latest lows and the metal continues to trade closer to its recent highs. The break of $30.853, the Jun 21 high, is a bullish development and undermines a recent bearish theme. A continuation higher would signal scope for a test of the key resistance and the bull trigger at $32.518, the May 20 high. On the downside, key support and the bear trigger, lies at $28.573, the Jun 26 low.