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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
UK
Media speculation surrounding the prospect of PM Rishi Sunak calling a snap general election in the summer has intensified following the low inflation print recorded this morning. Jason Groves at the Daily Mail posts on X: "Westminster rumour mill in overdrive that Sunak is about to call election for July 4. May yet prove to be unfounded but No 10 currently silent on the question."
- Political betting markets have recorded a notable shift in the past 24 hours, with the implied probability of a Q224 general election rising from 14.3% on 21 May to 33.3% at present according to data from Smarkets (see chart below).
- Calling an early eleciton would be a extremely risky move for Sunak and his centre-right Conservative party. The gov't is coming off the back of a set of extremely poor local election results at the start of May, and opinion polling continues to show the Conservatives trailing the main opposition centre-left Labour party by anywhere between 16% and 27% over the past seven days. Even the lower end of that range, if replicated in a general election, would result in a comfortable Labour majority.
- The broad expectation among political pundits is for the election to take place in Oct-Nov 2024, allowing the economic 'feel good' of lower inflation and potentially lower interest rates to have become more pronounced.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Next General Election Date (by Quarter), %
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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