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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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As UK Chancellor Hunt prepares to speak on the government's fiscal plans (1100UK), the chart below provides some comparative perspective on the deterioration of the UK's near-term fiscal outlook in the past few weeks.
- Forecasts for 2023 European fiscal balances deteriorated markedly after the Russia-Ukraine war began in February, primarily due to energy subsidies and weaker growth. The UK's fiscal outlook looked less negative than the Eurozone aggregate, with Germany's expected deficit gradually "catching down" with the UK's.
- But since September's mini-budget, the UK's 2023 expected deficit has more than doubled from around 3% of GDP to well above 6%. Italy's is 5% by comparison.
- These forecasts haven't yet caught up with the last week's events. Though the UK's red line is set to "u-turn" over the coming weeks as analysts' surveys adjust, the question is, by how much.
Source: BBG Survey, MNI
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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