Tory Rebels Move Closer To Triggering No-Confidence Vote

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's allies are preparing for an expected formal challenge to his leadership by disgruntled Tory rebels, several UK media outlets reported over the weekend.

• For a vote on Mr Johnson's future to be triggered, 54 letters of no confidence need to be submitted to Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the 1922 Committee of backbench Conservative MPs. It is uncertain how many letters have already been submitted, with the Times quoting 67 on Sunday in a report promptly played down by a ministerial ally of the Prime Minister.
• While only Brady knows exactly how many letters have reached him, there is growing likelihood that this threshold has now been passed, according to a number of source reports. Furthermore, a number of Johnson's If these rumours are confirmed, a no-confidence vote could called as soon as this Tuesday or Wednesday.
• If a ballot is held, Johnson would have to win the support of at least 180 Tory MPs in order to hold onto party leadership and remain Prime Minister. The Independent suggested that his allies are certain that the "payroll vote" of ministers and parliamentary aides would suffice, but others noted that Johnson cannot count on voting discipline in a secret ballot.
• In addition, even a survival of a leadership challenge would not remove all headwinds for Johnson. A narrow victory would leave his position within the party severely weakened, while focus would turn to the by-elections in Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton on 23 June, which are expected to see the Tories suffer humiliating defeats.
• The Guardian ran a source report noting that Johnson's allies are preparing a policy offensive in a last-ditch attempt to save him. The Prime Minister is expected to make health and housing policy announcements this week to demonstrate that "he was getting on with the job."