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Ukrainian Gas Transit Loss Unlikely to Cause Major Marked Upside: Platts

NATGAS

Losing Russian natural gas flows via Ukraine should not cause Europe’s gas market to relapse into a crisis environment, Platts said.

  • Flows continue as normal despite fighting around the key Sudzha interconnector station.
  • Analysts said that neither damage to the connector, nor the expiry of the transit deal in December were likely to spike the market; a December cut-off is already the base-case.
  • The loss of the 60 mcm/d from the Yamal pipeline in 2021 caused gas prices to double in October compared to August. Meanwhile, the loss of the 150 mcm/d Nord Stream drove TTF to 350 Eur/MWh in 2022.
  • However, a similar response is not expected this time.
  • The impact will mainly be felt in Austria and Slovakia, but analysts said storage in already sufficient to cope.
  • Nonetheless, the region remains at risk from the likes of a severe winter, which could plunge the market into a crisis.

Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights

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