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Free AccessUkrainian Gas Transit Loss Unlikely to Cause Major Marked Upside: Platts
Losing Russian natural gas flows via Ukraine should not cause Europe’s gas market to relapse into a crisis environment, Platts said.
- Flows continue as normal despite fighting around the key Sudzha interconnector station.
- Analysts said that neither damage to the connector, nor the expiry of the transit deal in December were likely to spike the market; a December cut-off is already the base-case.
- The loss of the 60 mcm/d from the Yamal pipeline in 2021 caused gas prices to double in October compared to August. Meanwhile, the loss of the 150 mcm/d Nord Stream drove TTF to 350 Eur/MWh in 2022.
- However, a similar response is not expected this time.
- The impact will mainly be felt in Austria and Slovakia, but analysts said storage in already sufficient to cope.
- Nonetheless, the region remains at risk from the likes of a severe winter, which could plunge the market into a crisis.
Source: S&P Global Commodity Insights
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.