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ULC and GDP Deflator Moderate In Q4, But Productivity Remains Sluggish

ITALY DATA

Looking at the Italian Q4 2023 GDP deflator components in more detail:

  • Real productivity remains below the pre-covid trend after falling -0.7% Q/Q in Q4. Taken alongside a +1.2% Q/Q rise in total compensation and a 0.9% Q/Q rise in hours worked, ULCs rose +1.1% Q/Q.
  • On an annual basis, ULCs moderated to +2.9% Y/Y (vs +4.3% in Q3), aided largely by a fall in total compensation to +3.6% Y/Y (vs +3.8% prior), even as productivity was -1.7% lower Y/Y.
  • This helped the GDP deflator moderate to +4.0% Y/Y (vs 5.8% prior), with ULCs contributing 1.17pp (vs 1.73pp prior) and unit profits 1.78pp (vs 2.89pp).
  • The larger fall in unit profits' contribution to the deflator vs ULCs' suggests firms used profits to buffer rises in wage costs in Q4.

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