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Ultimately Broad Consolidation Of Yesterday's Sizeable Rally

US TSYS
  • Cash Tsys sit with a 2.5-4.5bp rally across 2-10Y tenors and a smaller cheapening in the very long end, broadly consolidate yesterday’s significant belly-led rally albeit after some volatility.
  • JOLTS openings implied a faster than expected decline in labor demand but the move lower in Fed hike pricing was short-lived. There were few catalysts for the move higher in yields with Jefferson and Daly broadly keeping in line with other member commentary although breakevens bounced further after their September slide and with oil up strongly ahead of expected OPEC+ cuts tomorrow.
  • That drove a range for 2YY of 3.99-4.11%, currently nudging the top of that, with 2s10s now little changed from yesterday’s close at -48bp (-1bp) after flattening through the US session.
  • TYZ2 at 113-14+ has pulled back off highs of 113-30, with the corrective bounce next opening resistance at 114-31+ (38.2% retrace of the Aug 2 – Sep 28 bear leg).
  • Tomorrow’s session likely sees focus on ISM services after the mfg miss along with final PMIs, ADP and lone Fedspeak from Bostic (’24 voter).
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