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UMich Inflation Expectations Post Notable Drop

US DATA
  • US University of Michigan Sentiment (Dec P) M/M 69.4 vs. Exp. 62.0 (Prev. 61.3)
  • Expectations 66.4 vs. Exp. 57.0 (Prev. 56.8)
  • 1-yr Inflation Expectations 3.1% vs. Exp. 4.3% (Prev. 4.5%)
  • 5-10-yr Inflation Expectations 2.8% vs. Exp. 3.1% (Prev. 3.2%)
From the report:
  • Consumer sentiment soared 13% [...] primarily on the basis of improvements in the expected trajectory of inflation.
  • All five index components rose this month, led by surges of over 24% for both the short and long-run outlook for business conditions.
  • Year-ahead inflation expectations are at the lowest since March 2021 and sits just above the 2.3-3.0% range seen in the two years prior to the pandemic.
  • Short-run inflation expectations in 2023 have been characterized by considerable volatility and uncertainty, reflecting variation over the course of the year in how quickly realized inflation has slowed, along with changes in gas prices.
  • For both short-run and long-run inflation expectations, uncertainty reached its lowest levels since mid-2021.
  • However, uncertainty from the upcoming elections and international conflicts pose risks in the months ahead.
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