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Uncertainty Around Weightings Ahead Of January CPI

SWEDEN

Swedish January CPI is due at 0700GMT/0800CET. Analysts expect CPIF ex-energy at 4.4% Y/Y (vs 5.3% prior), with Nomura a standout on the downside looking for 3.9% Y/Y. The Riksbank's November MPR sees CPIF ex-energy at 4.51% Y/Y, though this forecast is now 2-months stale.

  • Analysts note that the reweighting of the CPIF basket adds two-way uncertainty to the January print.
  • Aside from this, electricity base effects are seen pushing headline inflation higher to 3.1% Y/Y (vs 2.3% prior; Riksbank 3.15%).
  • Services inflation may see a temporary uptick, with some analysts pointing to higher rents in January and across 2024 as a whole.
  • Food prices are generally seen rising on the month.
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