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Uncertainty Over Policy Outlook Leaves PLN Vulnerable

POLAND
  • Finance Ministry economist Lukasz Czernicki mentioned in an interview that Poland’s deficit will probably be below 4% this year (as % of GDP), versus 5.3% previously estimated.
  • Yesterday, the NBP rose its policy rate by 50bps to 1.75% (as expected).
  • NBP commented in its statement that the scope of the tightening cycle will depend on data, which leaves PLN vulnerable as it increases the uncertainty over policy outlook.
  • Weaker growth expectations imply slower pace while rising inflationary pressures suggest bigger hikes.
  • As a reminder, inflation came in higher than expected in November at 7.7% YoY (vs. 7.3%), up from 6.8% the previous month and diverging significantly from the NBP 3.5% upper tolerance band.
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